Will the stock market go up or down? Flip on the television, open a newspaper, or browse the internet, and you’ll find no shortage of confident predictions. Some say a crash is imminent; others foresee a roaring bull market. It’s tempting to weigh the arguments, form an opinion, and adjust your investments accordingly. Warren Buffett advises against it.
“Charlie and I never have an opinion about the market because it wouldn’t be any good and it might interfere with the opinions we have that are good,” Buffett said at the 1994 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting.
His reasoning is simple: The future of the market is unknowable, but the value of a great business is not. A sound company with strong earnings, a durable competitive advantage, and competent management will perform well over time—regardless of market swings. To hold off on a promising investment just because of macroeconomic uncertainty is, in Buffett’s view, sheer folly.
“If we’re right about a business… it would be very foolish for us not to take action because we thought something about what the market was going to do,” he explained. “Because we just don’t know.”
The lesson is clear: Don’t let noise drown out knowledge. Market movements are unpredictable, but great businesses endure. The wise investor ignores the forecasts and focuses on what can actually be known.
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© 2025 David Mazor
Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.