Category: Lessons From Warren Buffett

Risk and the amount of time you intend to hold a stock are inextricably linked, according to Warren Buffett. That linkage is what makes day trading stocks so risky, as the shorter the holding period, the more likely that short term price movements will sink you.

“Well, we do define risk as the possibility of harm or injury. And in that respect we think it’s inextricably wound up in your time horizon for holding an asset,” Warren Buffett said at the 1994 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. “If you intend to buy XYZ Corporation at 11:30 this morning and sell it out before the close today, I mean, that is, in our view, that is a very risky transaction. Because we think 50 percent of the time you’re going to suffer some harm or injury. If you have a time horizon on a business, we think the risk of buying something like Coca-Cola at the price we bought it at a few years ago is essentially, is so close to nil, in terms of our perspective holding period. But if you asked me the risk of buying Coca-Cola this morning and you’re going to sell it tomorrow morning, I say that is a very risky transaction.”

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© 2022 David Mazor

Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

How a company weathers adversity tells you interesting things about a business, according to Warren Buffett. Among the things it shows you is not only the resiliency of a company, but also how wide its moat truly is.

“If you see a business take a lot of adversity and still do well, that tells you something about the underlying strength of the business,” Warren Buffett said at the 2000 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. “So, occasionally, you will find that an interesting test of the strength of a business. Coca-Cola had some problems, you know, in Europe. But it comes back stronger than ever. They certainly had problems with New Coke, and they came back stronger than ever. So you do see that underlying strength. And that’s very impressive as a way of evaluating the depth and impenetrability of the moat that we talked about earlier.”

Buffett’s full explanation on adversity and how it tests a business

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© 2022 David Mazor

Warren Buffett is fond of reminding investors about “Mr. Market,” Benjamin Graham’s personification of stock market fluctuations that he describes in Chapter 8 of The Intelligent Investor. Graham notes that sometimes the prices for stocks that Mr. Market quotes are reasonable, but sometimes “Mr. Market lets his enthusiasm or his fears run away with him, and the value he proposes seems to you a little short of silly.”

This brings us to a key point that Warren Buffett is keen to emphasize. The market is there to serve you not instruct you.

“The beauty of stocks is they do sell at silly prices from time to time,” Warren Buffett said at the 2012 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. “Ben Graham writes about it in Chapter 8 of The Intelligent Investor. . . Chapter 8 says that in the market you’re going to have a partner named ‘Mr. Market,’ and the beauty of him as your partner is that he’s kind of a psychotic drunk, and he will do very weird things over time and your job is to remember that he’s there to serve you and not to advise you. And if you can keep that mental state, then all those thousands of prices that Mr. Market is offering you every day on every major business in the world, practically, that he is making lots of mistakes, and he makes them for all kinds of weird reasons. And all you have to do is occasionally oblige him when he offers to either buy or sell from you at the same price on any given day, any given security.”

As Graham wrote:

“If you are a prudent investor or a sensible businessman, will you let Mr. Market’s daily communication determine your view of the value of a $1,000 interest in the enterprise? Only in case you agree with him, or in case you want to trade with him. You may be happy to sell out to him when he quotes you a ridiculously high price, and equally happy to buy from him when his price is low. But the rest of the time you will be wiser to form your own ideas of the value of your holdings, based on full reports from the company about its operations and financial position. “

Buffett’s full explanation on the stock market and stock prices

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© 2022 David Mazor

Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Warren Buffett recognizes that stock market prices periodically get disconnected from fundamentals. For Buffett, it’s both a caution and an opportunity.

“People get captivated simply by the notion of rising prices without going back to the underlying rationale. And that’s when you get very dangerous conditions in terms of possible bubbles,” Warren Buffett said at the 1997 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting.

Buffett notes that this applies to the market’s extremes both going up and falling.

“It’s just people behave in extreme ways in markets,” he adds. “And over time, that’s very good for people that keep their heads.”

Buffett’s full explanation on bubbles and market extremes

See the complete Lessons From Warren Buffett series

© 2021 David Mazor

Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.