Tag: Warren Buffett

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Acquisitions Precision Castparts Warren Buffett

Is Berkshire Getting Precision Castparts Too Cheap?

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Did Berkshire Hathaway pay too much when they agreed to pay $37.2 billion for aerospace parts manufacturer Precision Castparts?

That seems to be the Wall Street consensus based on the way the stock price has sagged a bit. Analysts slammed the deal, proclaiming that unlike the 2009 takeover of BNSF Railway this is a case of buying at the top of the market, not the bottom.

Buffett Agrees

While Warren Buffett doesn’t believe he is paying too much, after all, he’s buying a company Berkshire plans to still own in a hundred years, he has acknowledged, “This is a very high multiple for us to pay.”

Not So Fast

While almost everyone thinks the price is too high, Georg H. Krijgh of the G.H. Krijgh Guardian Fund, a private partnership based in the Netherlands, thinks it is way too low, and that Buffett has pulled a fast one again.

In a letter to Precision Castparts’ Board of Directors he states:

“Precision Castparts is the largest investment of our fund. We believe that the true value of the company is far in excess of the USD 235 per share offer by Berkshire Hathaway. In our view:
1. An independent Precision Castparts is worth at least USD 40 billion.
2. Berkshire Hathaway is not paying an appropriate premium.
3. Accepting the USD 235 per share offer is not in line with the fiduciary duty of the Board of Directors.
4. We will vote against the proposed sale.

We believe that the PCC Board of Directors is leaving significant value on the table.

We expect earnings of USD 2 billion

First, Mr. Buffett is telling the media that the multiple is high. This might be true based on 2015 earnings but it is incorrect when using future expected earnings and free cash flow. Current earnings are temporarily under pressure due to lower volumes in energy markets. PCC’s aerospace business is much less cyclical than widely believed and the ramp-up of several programs such as the Boeing 737 MAX, A320neo and the H-class turbines is likely to significantly increase earnings per share in the next few years even when energy markets remain weak. Mr. Donegan confirmed this in several recent earnings calls. We believe that free cash flow will grow to USD 2 billion annually.

Multiple of at least 20 times

Second, PCC deserves a high multiple because it has a tremendously strong market position, which is clearly visible by the continuously high return on equity. It is the low-cost and often sole-source provider of mission critical components in a secular growth market, a leader in metallurgical technology, owner of intellectual property and strategic assets such as TIMET and has a strong balance sheet. Especially in these times of low interest rates, PCC deserves a multiple above 20 times earnings. PCC is worth at least USD 40 billion.”

More From Krigh

“Berkshire Hathaway is offering a normal multiple on depressed earnings. Mr. Buffett, whom we greatly respect, and his team have a reputation of finding companies that are not aware of their true fair value. A case in point is Berkshire Hathaway’s takeover of Burlington Northern in 2009. He bought the railroad just before the economy and earnings rebounded. In 2009, shareholders may have been distracted by the credit crisis. Currently, there is no reason to sell for a low price in a hurry. The quoted 21% premium is based on a short-term dip in the share price. For many days during the past year the share price was trading above USD 220, a 6% discount to the offer price.”

Is There Really A Premium?

Krigh cites Precision Castparts’ own stock repurchases to question whether Berkshire is even paying a premium for the stock at all in light of the stock’s 52-week high of $249.12 being above Berkshire’s offer of $235 per share.

“During the past two years, the Board of Directors approved and executed share repurchases at prices around Berkshire Hathaway’s offer price. A significant part of the buybacks seems to have occurred at an average price above USD 230. It is puzzling why you are willing to buy Precision Castparts shares at this price and at the same time sell full control of the business at the same price. In addition, in 2014 and 2015, Berkshire Hathaway bought additional shares of PCC for a price between USD 200 and USD 240. You are aware that they are intelligent investors and only buy when the intrinsic value is significantly higher than the price. This confirms the fact that the USD 235 per share offer is too low.”

So, is Berkshire paying too much or too little? Only time will tell, but when you plan to own something a hundred years or two, it will probably look like quite a bargain at some point.

For Berkshire shareholders alive today, here’s hoping that the bargain is now.

© 2015 David Mazor

Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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Minority Stock Positions

Berkshire’s 13F Filing Hints at Surprise in the Wings

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Berkshire Hathaway’s Form 13F filing, which is required to be filed quarterly with the Securities and Exchange Commission, always give plenty to chew on for Berkshire watchers.

On the surface it has been a relatively quiet 2nd quarter 2015 for much of its minority-share stock holdings, with its purchase of a large number of shares in Charter Communications one of the few major increases.

Steady as She Goes

Berkshire’s four biggest holdings all remained unchanged, with Wells Fargo making up 24.68% of the total portfolio, Coca-Cola 14.64%, IBM 12.07%, and American Express 10.99%.

In the case of Coca-Cola, the $518 million in dividends it received in 2014, on a very low cost basis, meant an effective yield of 40%, so no wonder Warren Buffett calls Coca-Cola one of his “forever stocks.” You would drink five Cokes a day too if it got you a 40% return.

A Surprise Coming Soon?

The company did note that “confidential information has been omitted from the public Form 13F report and filed separately with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission,” which likely implies that the company is amassing shares in a company, and in such a case it is not required to reveal the company publicly. Berkshire used the same strategy when it took a position in IBM that made it the company’s largest minority-owner with just over 8% of the company. We will have to wait and see if there is another surprise minority-ownership company bombshell, however we do know that the purchase was in the $3 billion range.

Stocks on the Increase

Berkshire bought 2,535,542 shares of the cable TV operator Charter Communications, increasing its position by 42% to 8,514,678 shares. The position is 7.6009% of Berkshire’s total portfolio.

Berkshire first took a position in Charter Communications during the 2nd quarter of 2014. The company has been on the rise since emerging from bankruptcy in 2009, and is in the process of merging with Time Warner Cable Inc. and acquiring Bright House Networks, a video service provider and cable internet provider. The merger is the work of Chairman John Malone whose Liberty Broadband is the largest Charter Communications shareholder. Berkshire has long been a buyer of shares in Malone’s companies, although in 2014 it sold its entire stake in premium cable channel Starz.

A Stock That’s Paying Dividends

Berkshire also increased its position in U.S. Bancorp by 1,289,777 shares, an increase of 1%, bringing its total to 85,063,167 shares. The position is 4.7538% of Berkshire’s total portfolio.

While Berkshire is famous for being the stock that doesn’t pay a dividend, it certainly loves to receive them, and U.S. Bancorp has been one of the stronger stocks in the banking sector for dividends. The company announced a 4.1% dividend increase in June, the 5th consecutive dividend increase since 2011.

A Potential Lubrizol Acquisition?

Also reported were the 20,000,000 shares of Axalta Coating Systems that it bought from the Carlyle Group for $28 per share. Berkshire first announced plans for the purchase in April, and the big question is whether the former DuPont unit is an acquisition target for Berkshire Hathaway’s Lubrizol Corporation. The $28 price was below the $31.30 share price that Axalta was trading at after the announcement. It now sits at $30.38 as of Friday’s closing bell.

Another Potential Takeover Candidate

DaVita Healthcare Partners, which also looks like a good fit with Berkshire, considering that an aging population and increased health care coverage under the Affordable Care Act benefits its kidney dialysis business, was unchanged at 38,565,570 shares.

Berkshire entered into a standstill agreement with Davita in May 2014, pledging not purchase more than 25% of the company. Its ownership stake currently sits at just under 17.95%.

And One That’s Not So Likely, Yet

The 13F filing does not yet reflect Berkshire’s 26% ownership of Kraft Heinz, which closed after the quarter ended. The filing does show that Berkshire owned 578,000 shares in snack maker Mondelēz International, Inc., which has recently been rumored as a possible merger candidate with Kraft Heinz. Warren Buffett just last week downplayed the possibility, noting that there was still much worked to be done in integrating Kraft and Heinz.

Stocks on the Decrease

Major decreases in holdings, included bailing on energy sector stocks Phillips 66 and National Oilwell Varco. Berkshire sold its entire 7,499,450 position in Phillips 66, and its entire 1,978,895 position in National Oilwell Varco. Both have been hit hard by low oil prices.

Berkshire had already liquidated most its Phillips 66 position in 2014 when it swapped it for ownership of Phillips Specialty Products Inc. and approximately $450 million in cash. The move brought tax saving to Berkshire and a new unit to Lubrizol.

Whither Viacom

Also going down were Berkshire’s shares in Viacom, Chicago Bridge & Iron Company, and WABCO Holdings Inc.

Its Viacom position decreased a whopping 31% as Berkshire sold 2,618,358 shares. Berkshire looks to be wise to get out of Viacom as fast as it can. The mass media company has seen its stock value plummet 42% year to date, as it struggles to hold on to viewers and carriers of its channels. Among its troubles, Viacom is in a battle with satellite TV provider Dish TV, which has dropped the company’s channels from its service.

Berkshire’s holdings in Chicago Bridge & Iron Company decreased 12% as it sold 1,374,189 shares. Berkshire first took a position in the engineering, procurement and construction company during the 1st quarter of 2013 only to watch the share price peak at $86.50 in April 2014 before crashing all the way down to $34.51 a year later. Year to date the stock has risen $23.25% but it appears that Berkshire has now cooled on it as an investment.

Buffett, Combs or Weschler

Berkshire does not normally announce which transactions are the work of Warren Buffett, and which transactions are the work of his two portfolio managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. However, Buffett recently revealed that Berkshire’s 2.9% position in aerospace manufacturer Precision Castparts was originally purchased by Todd Combs. It was Buffett that decided to make the bid to purchase the entire company for $37 billion.

While Warren Buffett has acquired most of Berkshire’s portfolio, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler each manage a portfolio that is roughly $9 billion in assets. The two investment managers are widely assumed to be the future managers of the entire portfolio.

The total portfolio slipped to a market value of $107.182 Billion from $110.776 billion at the end of the 1st quarter 2015.

© 2015 David Mazor

Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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Acquisitions Kraft Heinz

Could Kraft Heinz Be Ready To Gobble Up Mondelēz?

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When activist investor Bill Ackman took a $5.5 billion stake in Mondelēz International, Inc., everyone started looking at Kraft Heinz as a potential buyer for the snack food company. After all, Berkshire and 3G Capital have been busy wringing cost savings out of the newly united food giant, and it could make sense to add Mondelēz, which split off from Kraft in October of 2012. Mondelēz was supposed to be the more exciting part of the split, but its performance since then has been lackluster.

So, is Warren Buffett interested? Not in the short term, according to his comments Monday during an appearance on CNBC.

“Well, I will listen to anything my friends at 3G want to do, but with Kraft Heinz we have our work cut out for us for a couple of years,” Buffett said “I think it is quite unlikely, you never want to say anything is impossible, but I think it is quite unlikely that Kraft Heinz would be doing a big acquisition in the next couple of years. Somewhere down the road I wouldn’t be surprised. But, it also would have to make sense financially, and frankly, most of the food companies sell at prices that it would be very hard for us to make a deal even if we had done all of the work needed at Kraft Heinz. A lot of the companies are selling at prices that sort of reflect improvements in them that people sort of what has been happening at Kraft Heinz, and believe me this is not easy.”

Placing the Cart Before the Horse

According to Buffett, now that 3G proved it could wring savings out of Heinz, the other big food manufacturers became priced such that the savings is already factored into their share price.

“Well, it would be hard for us to make a deal that makes sense, yeah. But who knows what happens down the line, but if you look at Kellogg or Campbell’s Soup or Mondelēz, they’re prices to some extent the market has put into those companies prices that reflect an expectation Kraft Heinz type margins are possible, and that may be the case, but I have not seen it elsewhere.”

So, while the door’s open a crack, Buffett’s in no rush to go through it.

© 2015 David Mazor

Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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Warren Buffett

China’s Stock Market Retreat Proves Buffett Right

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China’s stock market has rocketed upward in 2015, with China’s domestic equity markets having more than doubled, but its recent 20-percent retreat brings to mind Warren Buffett’s recent words on whether traditional value investing has a place in such a market.

“Investment principles do not stop at borders, Buffet noted at the 2015 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting. “I would apply the principles of the Intelligent Investor—stocks as prices of a business—in evaluating businesses overseas.”

With China’s high-flying stock market increasingly built on borrowed money, with margin debt at a record 8% of the stock market’s free float, Chinese investors may be wise to heed another one of Buffett’s famed aphorisms.

“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

© 2015 David Mazor

Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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Commentary Special Report Warren Buffett

Berkshire Hathaway’s Biggest Question

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Who will succeed Warren Buffett, who turns 85 in August, as the head of Berkshire Hathaway? This would seem to be the biggest question hanging over the shareholders of the massive conglomerate. Will it be Greg Abel, the head of Berkshire Hathaway Energy, or Ajit Jain, who heads up Berkshire’s reinsurance business? Both are frontrunners, especially since Vice-chairman Charlie Munger, who is himself 91 this year, specifically dropped their names in his shareholder letter included in the 2014 Berkshire Hathaway annual report. Yet while people speculate on Buffett’s successor, I would suggest there’s a far more important question. After all, CEOs come and go, and whoever follows Buffett and Munger will eventually be succeeded by others.

So, the biggest question is not who will succeed Buffett; it’s how will they be compensated. In other words, how will they participate in the growth of the company as compared to how has Buffett participated?

Can a unique situation be replicated?

Berkshire Hathaway may be unique in the sheer number of companies that operate under its umbrella. It’s not only a conglomerate; it’s a conglomerate of conglomerates. For example, Berkshire’s Marmon Group has 160 independent manufacturing and service businesses, and Berkshire’s Scott Fetzer Group oversees 21 diverse companies. But even this is not what is most unique about Berkshire. What’s most unique is that Warren Buffett is participating first and foremost just as you do, as a shareholder.

The most underpaid CEO in the Fortune 500

For a man overseeing a conglomerate with a market value of roughly $347 billion, you would think that Buffett receives sky high compensation, especially since that conglomerate’s share value has risen 1,826,163% (yes, that’s not a misprint) from 1966 to 2014. However, Buffett (and Charlie Munger) have annual salaries of only $100,000. What’s more, there are no stock options and no bonuses. Buffett and Munger’s rock bottom salaries mean that they are participating in Berkshire just like you are, as long-term shareholders that care more about increasing the underlying intrinsic value of the company than any short-term trick to boost the stock price.

Think that doesn’t matter?

“The more CEOs are paid, the worse the firm does over the next three years, as far as stock performance and even accounting performance,” notes Michael Cooper of the University of Utah’s David Eccles School of Business. Prof. Cooper co-authored a paper that proved just that.

Just look at David Zaslav, CEO of pay-TV channel Discovery Communications. Zaslav had a total compensation package of $156.1 million in 2014, yet the same year the stock lost a quarter of its value, even as the broader market boomed. The shareholders felt the pain, while Zaslav got the gain. That’s not exactly participating on the same basis.

At the 2015 Berkshire annual meeting, Buffett acknowledged that when CEO incentives get out of line with a company’s goals bad things can happen.

“Charlie and I believe in incentives, Buffett said. “But we have seen decent people get into trouble with incentives. The CEO promises a certain number, and his executives don’t want to make the CEO look bad. Egos get involved. You have to be careful in the messages you send as CEO. If you don’t want to disappoint Wall Street, your managers will react.”

A Hedge without the 2 and 20

Hedge fund managers built their fortunes on the 2% annual management fee and a 20% of the profits, but that’s not necessarily the same for the hedge fund’s investors, who don’t get that management fee to cushion any tumble in profits. Remember in 2008 when Buffett bet hedge fund manager Ted Seides that a low-priced index fund tracking the S&P 500 would beat the average of any 5 hedge funds over a 10-year period that Seides picked? Well, the “Million-Dollar Bet” is looking more and more like a sure bet for Buffett, because he knew the high friction costs would hurt the hedge funds’ returns.

In fact, Berkshire’s a conglomerate that operates as hedge fund without the management fee structure. Like a hedge fund, it can buy 100% of a company (unlike a mutual fund), it uses derivatives to increase its leverage and hedge its risk, and because its leadership is in lock step with its investors, all that benefit goes right to each shareholder.

Whose side will they be on?

In 2011, David Sokol, who once looked like the heir apparent to Buffett, abruptly resigned after it turned out that he had accumulated over 96,000 shares of Lubrizol before bringing the company to Buffett’s attention as a potential acquisition. Buffett later called Sokol’s actions “inexplicable” and “inexcusable,” and while the SEC dropped its probe, the Sokol fiasco showed that’s it’s not automatic that Berkshire’s leadership will align with its shareholders interests.

Or, as Charlie Munger has said, “Trustworthiness is more important than brains.”

Berkshire’s Future Leadership

Berkshire’s future generations of leadership may be great stock pickers, able to build portfolios that equal the $100 billion portfolio that Buffett built. They may be great capital allocators like Buffett, able to use the profits from one company to by other companies with even greater growth potential. They might even be as savvy opportunists, unleashing Berkshire’s mountains of cash just when others credit has dried up. However, the big question is whether they do it on the same basis as Buffett and Munger, on behalf of all the shareholders.

© 2015 David Mazor

Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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BNSF Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett’s Scolding of BNSF Brings Results

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“Praise by name and criticize by category,” Warren Buffett is famed for saying, and it was the rare exception when Buffett called out BNSF Railway for its delivery delays over the past year.

“BNSF disappointed many of its customers,” Buffett wrote in his annual letter to shareholders.

BNSF didn’t just disappoint customers, in some cases it lost them to rivals such as Union Pacific, as record crop numbers put the agricultural needs of Midwest farmers on a collision course with crude producers in the Bakken formation.

It’s no small matter, as last year BNSF moved nearly 1 million carloads of grain and other agricultural products.

With the latest over all year-to-date carload numbers showing a very positive 4.39-percent increase, BNSF has clearly taken Buffett’s marching orders seriously. The railroad’s $5.5 billion in infrastructure investments that it made in 2014 has started to pay off. The improvements included $400 million of track improvements in North Dakota alone.

Improvements By the Numbers

It’s in the grain carloads where there is particularly good news. Year-to-date carloads rose 14.8-percent to 191,060 from 166,425 in the 2nd quarter of 2014.

Last week, the news continues to improve, and there were only 144 outstanding grain carloads from May 9-12 in North Dakota versus 7,200 outstanding grain cars during the same period last year.

“We have substantially better AG shuttle turns per month as compared to last year,” a BNSF official told me at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting. “Last year we were below 2 turns per month, and now we are over 2.5 turns per month.”

BNSF is continuing to improve its operations, committing a record $6 billion to its Capital Plan for 2015. The amount is the most ever spent by a railroad in a given year.

© 2015 David Mazor

Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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Charlie Munger Warren Buffett

No Threat of Activist Investors Attacking Berkshire

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Activist investors have been giving companies a hard time lately, accumulating large blocks of stock as a way of forcing their way onto corporate boards, and often forcing companies to “raise shareholder value” through spin-offs and special dividends as their price to go away. Just this week, DuPont defeated activist investor Nelson Peltz, and his Trian Fund Management, L.P.

Some consultants even advise corporations to settle with activist investors early, rather than trying to fight them.

Is Berkshire Hathaway vulnerable to what used to be called “greenmail”?

Not according to Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. They both scoffed at the idea while answering questions at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting on May 2, 2015.

As Buffett sees it, at a valuation of over a third of a trillion dollars, Berkshire is too big to be threatened by activist investors.

“The market value of Berkshire is going to be so great that, even if all the activists got together, they couldn’t do much about it,” Buffett explained. He added that he would invite them in, as their attempts to attack Berkshire would merely drive up the stock price.

“We should be a place where people dump their activists, because there not going to get anywhere,” Buffett said wryly.

While activist investors bill themselves as needed financial warriors that shake up hidebound companies to unlock value for all shareholders, Charlie Munger wasn’t having any of it.

“I don’t think it’s a great age, this age of activism,” Munger said. “It’s hard for me to think of many activists I want to marry into the family.”

© 2015 David Mazor

Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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Acquisitions Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett High on Germany

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Warren Buffett’s admiration for the German economy was on full display at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting on May 2, 2015.

This past February, Berkshire Hathaway struck a deal to acquire Devlet Louis Motorradvertriebs, a mail-order and retail chain selling motorbike clothing, helmets, leisurewear, add-on parts, and spare parts. The acquisition price was just over 400 million euros. The Hamburg, German-based retailer has 1,600 staff in their Europe-wide mail order business and at 70 retail stores in Germany and Austria.

Buffett likes Germany for a Variety of Reasons

“Germany is a terrific market, lots of people, lots of buying power, productive, it’s got a legal system we feel very good with, it’s got a regulatory system we feel very good with, it’s got people we feel very good with—and customers,” Warren Buffett explained back in February in an interview in German newspaper Handelsblatt.

The Three Ps

Buffett likes Germany because it has lots of people, they are productive, and they have lots of purchasing power.

While there was nothing formal to announce at the annual meeting, Buffett was emphatic that German companies are on Berkshire’s radar.

“I would be very surprised if we do not acquire at least one more company in Germany in the next 5 years,” he said, emphasizing that the euro’s recent plunge against the dollar makes European companies all the more attractive. “We’re far more on the radar screen than we were five years ago.”

© 2015 David Mazor

Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett’s Advice for Chinese Investors

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With Chinese stocks having soared in recent years, often fueled more by rumor than earnings, the question of whether value investing has any place in such an environment is a natural one to ask.

In Comes Warren Buffett With His Answer

“Investment principles do not stop at borders,” Buffett told a Chinese investor, who had made the pilgrimage from mainland China to Omaha, Nebraska, for the Berkshire annual meeting.

Buffett, who has put Berkshire Hathaway directly into Chinese equities as a minority owner in BYD Co Ltd, a Chinese manufacturer of automobiles and rechargeable batteries, also has a growing presence in China through Berkshire’s global companies.

Quick-service-restaurant franchisor Dairy Queen International has 600+ franchises in China, and ISCAR, a global manufacturer of precision carbide metalworking tools, maintains eight branch offices in provinces throughout the country, to name just two examples.

Still, speculative fever often appears to leave value investors, who focus on a company’s fundamentals, shaking their heads in disgust.

What should be remembered is that all speculative bubbles eventually burst, leaving all the stocks that are more hot air than substance to evaporate.

The recent tightening of the margin lending requirements in Chinese stock markets are just the first steps that could turn gamblers into paupers.

As economist John Kenneth Galbraith chronicled in The Great Crash 1929.

“That afternoon and evening thousands of speculators decided to get out while – as they mistakenly supposed – the getting was good. Other thousands were told they had no choice but to get out unless they posted more collateral, for as the day’s business came to an end an unprecedented volume of margin calls went out.”

That’s Not Buffett’s Only Advice

Or, as Buffett also has been known to say, “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

© 2015 David Mazor

Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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Buffett Successors Todd Combs and Ted Weschler Warren Buffett

Are Ajit Jain and Greg Abel the Successors to Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger?

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Despite Warren Buffett being a spry age 84, and Charlie Munger a youthful 91, the question of the successor or successors that will lead Berkshire Hathaway continues to be on analysts’ and commentators’ minds.

“Both the board and I believe we now have the right person to succeed me as CEO — a successor ready to assume the job the day after I die or step down,” Buffett has said.

Now, in his letter published in the 2014 Annual Report, Charlie Munger seems to hint that Ajit Jain or Greg Abel could be in line to provide the leadership that will carry Berkshire forward.

“For instance, Ajit Jain and Greg Abel are proven performers who would probably be under-described as “world-class.” “World-leading” would be the description I would choose. In some important ways, each is a better business executive than Buffett.

And I believe neither Jain nor Abel would (1) leave Berkshire, no matter what someone else offered or (2) desire much change in the Berkshire system.”

While neither Buffett nor Munger has officially revealed the next leader or leaders of Berkshire Hathaway, both Jain and Abel would seem to fit the bill.

First, they would be promoted from inside the company, and thus are steeped in Berkshire’s unique corporate culture.

Secondly, they are both young enough to have long reigns at a company that certainly has no interest in a mandatory retirement age, and each of them would bring essential skill sets to the job.

Both have played important leadership roles heading two of Berkshire’s largest units.

Ajit Jain, as the man who has built Berkshire’s insurance and reinsurance empire, is better equipped than almost anyone in the world to take on the important task of making sure Berkshire’s insurance companies don’t try to grow by taking on undue risk.

Greg Abel, as the head of Berkshire Hathaway Energy, certainly knows about capital allocation. Under his leadership, BHE has grown into one of the world’s largest energy providers and a leader in renewable energy generation. He also sits on the Board of Heinz, and BHE includes Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Berkshire’s rapidly expanding real estate sales unit. Both of these companies give him additional insight into consumer markets.

As for their ages, Jain is age 63, and Abel is only 52, so they hopefully would have many years to put their stamps on Berkshire.

So which one is it?

Why not both of them?

Well, while Buffett spoke in the singular, he has already stated that his replacement would probably see his various roles filled by several people.

The job of managing Berkshire’s $125 billion and growing stock portfolio will almost certainly fall to Ted Weschler and Todd Combs, who Buffett has been grooming by giving each a multi-billion dollar stock portfolio to manage.

Together, Jain and Abel would also be sounding boards and counter balances for each other in much the same way that Buffett has used Munger.

While Warren Buffett rightly gets the lion’s share of credit for Berkshire’s phenomenal growth, Charlie Munger’s sage advice has often been overlooked by the press.

It certainly hasn’t been overlooked by Buffett.

While the latest buzz comes from Munger, Buffett has repeatedly praised both Jain and Abel.

On Jain, Buffett said “It is impossible to overstate how valuable Ajit [Jain] is to Berkshire. Don’t worry about my health; worry about his.”

On Abel, Buffett has highlighted the impact that he and Mathew Rose (CEO of BNSF) have had on Berkshire, stating “I am also both proud and grateful for what they have accomplished for Berkshire shareholders.”

So, if Ajit Jain and Greg Abel are indeed the future leaders of Berkshire, shareholders can look forward to continued smart and capable leadership.

And we shouldn’t forget BNSF’s executive chairman Mathew Rose, who is only in his mid-fifties. He is certainly a prime contender as well.

© 2015 David Mazor

Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.