Risk is not something that is always immediately apparent. In fact, it is not until markets plunge, a company goes belly up, or a catastrophic event happens that causes insurers to pay large claims, that the degree of risk truly becomes clear.
“You don’t find out who’s been swimming naked until the tide goes out,” Warren Buffett said at the 1994 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. “You don’t, you really don’t find out who’s been swimming naked until the wind blows at them.”
Buffett pointed out that the adage applies as much to bonds and reinsurance as it does to the stock market. Investors that chase return through low-rated bonds, or insurance companies that write risky policies, can look like geniuses until circumstances turn against them and expose their true risk, often with catastrophic results.
“Reinsurance business, by its nature, will be a business in which some very stupid things are done en masse periodically,” Buffett noted. “I mean, you can be doing dumb things and not know it in reinsurance, and then all of a sudden wake up and find out, you know, the money is gone.”
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© 2022 David Mazor
Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.