Tag: Value Investing

Warren Buffett points out that focusing on a stock’s price, rather than its value, is not the path to success.

“I think it’s almost impossible if you’re to do well in equities over a period of time if you go to bed every night thinking about the price of them. I mean, Charlie and I, we think about the value of them,” Warren Buffett pointed out at the 2003 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. “If they closed the Stock Exchange tomorrow. . . It wouldn’t bother me and Charlie [Munger], at all. We would keep selling bricks, selling Dilly Bars, selling candy, writing insurance. You know, a lot of people have private companies and they never get a quote on them. You know, we bought See’s Candy in 1972. We haven’t had a quote on it since. Does that make us wonder about how we’re doing with See’s Candy? No, we looked at the company results. . . . There’s nothing wrong with focusing on company results. Focusing on the price of a stock is dynamite, because it really means that you think that the stock market knows more than you do…So you need to formulate your ideas on price and value, and if the price gets cheaper and you have funds, you know, logically, you should buy more . . . and we do that all the time. Where we make our mistakes, frankly, is where we focus on price and value and we start buying, and the price goes up a little and we quit, you know, like Charlie referred to, we might have done on See’s Candy. A mistake like that cost us $8 billion in the case of Walmart stock a few years ago, because it went up in price. And you know, we are not happy when things we’re buying go up in price. We want them to go down, and down, and down. And we’ll keep buying more, and hopefully we won’t run out of money.”

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© 2021 David Mazor

Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investors are often searching for great companies at bargain prices, but Warren Buffett cautions against passing up great companies just because the price is slightly higher than what you think is the ideal price.

“Generally speaking, I think if you’re sure enough about a business being wonderful, it’s more important to be certain about the business being a wonderful business than it is to be certain that the price is not ten percent too high or five percent too high, or something of the sort,” Warren Buffett said at the 1997 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. “And that’s a philosophy that I came slowly to. I originally was incredibly price conscious. We used to have prayer meetings before we would raise our bid an eighth, you know, around the office. But that was a mistake. And in some cases, a huge mistake. I mean, we’ve missed things because of that.”

Buffett’s full explanation

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© 2021 David Mazor

Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Despite all the boom and bust cycles of the past, Warren Buffett notes that when it comes to people learning from the past, there is one very important lesson that can benefit investors.

“What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history,” Warren Buffett said at the 2004 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. “And you certainly see that in financial markets all the time.”

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© 2021 David Mazor

Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Are some companies so outstanding that it is worth paying any price for them? It is a question that is worth asking when stock prices reach truly stratospheric heights.

Back in 1997, in his Chairman’s Letter to Berkshire Hathaway’s shareholders, Warren Buffett singled out Coca-Cola and Gillette as companies that he labeled as “The Inevitables.” Buffett was referring to companies that “will dominate their fields worldwide for an investment lifetime.” However, at that year’s annual meeting, in response to a shareholder’s question, he did clarify that even a company that is an “Inevitable” can be priced too high to be a good investment.

“But you can pay too much, at least in the short run, for businesses like that,” Warren Buffett said at the 1997 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. “So, I thought it was only appropriate to point out that no matter how wonderful a business it is, that there always is a risk that you will pay a price where it will take a few years for the business to catch up with the stock. That the stock can get ahead of the business.”

Hear Buffett’s full explanation

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© 2021 David Mazor

Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

If you are looking for a book that can show you how to get rich, Warren Buffett points to Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor as the only book you need.

“Chapters 8 and Chapters 20 are really all you need to do to get rich in this world,” Warren Buffett said at the 2012 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. “And Chapter 8 says that in the market you’re going to have a partner named ‘Mr. Market,’ and the beauty of him as your partner is that he’s kind of a psychotic drunk and he will do very weird things over time and your job is to remember that he’s there to serve you and not to advise you. And if you can keep that mental state, then all those thousands of prices that Mr. Market is offering you every day on every major business in the world, practically, that he is making lots of mistakes, and he makes them for all kinds of weird reasons. And all you have to do is occasionally oblige him when he offers to either buy or sell from you at the same price on any given day, any given security.”

Hear Buffett’s full explanation

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© 2021 David Mazor

Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The boom in interest in SPACs as a way to take companies public has drawn a huge number of retail investors to pour their money into SPACs in the hope that they will end up owning the next hot company. However, there is a key thing Warren Buffett doesn’t like about SPACs, and that is the requirement that the SPAC has to buy a company within two years or hand its money back to investors. This incentivizes SPACs to make a deal no matter what.

“If you put a gun to my head and said, ‘You’ve got to buy a big business in two years,’ you know, I’d buy one. But it wouldn’t be much of one,” Warren Buffett wryly noted at the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. “I had a call from a very famous figure many years ago who was involved in it and wanted to learn about reinsurance. And I said, ‘Well, I don’t really think it’s a very good business.’ And he said, ‘Yeah, but,’ he says, ‘if I don’t spend this money in six months, I’ve got to give it back to the investors.’ So, you know, it’s a different equation that you have if you’re working with other people’s money, where you get the upside and you have to give it back to them if you don’t do something. ”

Hear Buffett’s full explanation

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© 2021 David Mazor

Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Key to Warren Buffett’s efforts to find a company worth buying, whether it is the whole company, or just a minority stake, is his determination of the company’s intrinsic value. For Buffett, that intrinsic value is all about the future cash flow of the business. In his mind, those cash flows are like the interest paid on a bond, but unlike with bonds, the interest rate is not printed on a share of stock as it is with a bond.

“If we could see in looking at any business what its future cash inflows or outflows from the business to the owners, or from the owners, would be over the next, we’ll call it a hundred years, or until the business is extinct, and then could discount that back at the appropriate interest rate, which I’ll get to in a second, that would give us a number for intrinsic value,” Warren Buffett said at the 1997 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. “In other words, it would be like looking at a bond that had a whole bunch of coupons on it that was due in a hundred years. And if you could see what those coupons are, you can figure the value of that bond compared to government bonds, if you want to stick an appropriate risk rate in. Or, you can compare one government bond with 5 percent coupons to another government bond with 7 percent coupons. Each one of those bonds has a different value because they have different coupons printed on them. Businesses have coupons that are going to develop in the future too. The only problem is they aren’t printed on the instrument, and it’s up to the investor to try to estimate what those coupons are going to be over time.”

Buffett’s full explanation on determining intrinsic value

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© 2021 David Mazor

Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

When stocks make sharp moves downward, the news is often full of commentaries decrying volatility. However, for Warren Buffett, volatility is just what he is hoping for.

“Volatility is a huge plus to the real investor,” Warren Buffett said at the 1997 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. “Ben Graham used the example of ‘Mr. Market’. . . . And Ben said, ‘You know, just imagine that when you buy a stock, that you in effect, you’ve bought into a business where you have this obliging partner who comes around every day and offers you a price at which you’ll either buy or sell. And the price is identical.’ And no one ever gets that in a private business, where daily you get a buy-sell offer by a party. But in the stock market you get it. That’s a huge advantage. And it’s a bigger advantage if this partner of yours is a heavy-drinking manic depressive. The crazier he is, the more money you’re going to make. So you, as an investor, you love volatility. Not if you’re on margin, but if you’re an investor you aren’t on margin. And if you’re an investor, you love the idea of wild swings because it means more things are going to get mispriced.”

Buffett’s full explanation on volatility

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© 2021 David Mazor

Disclosure: David Mazor is a freelance writer focusing on Berkshire Hathaway. The author is long in Berkshire Hathaway, and this article is not a recommendation on whether to buy or sell the stock. The information contained in this article should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.